Destination Portsmouth

[Brigid-Mary]

Tomorrow( Monday) a posse from these parts, including 2 other members of this fraternity, are due to leave Lowestoft, aboard Ocean , en route to Ramsgit, and then on to Pompey on Tuesday.

My question- what are the chances of this soiree taking place in view of the various weather forcasts that are on offer at the moment.

My favorite site, XC Weather, shows nothing untoward, maybe 15 knts at lunch time, but if I am to believe the Met office, there is a severe gale 9 expected!

I must say I have never placed much faith in the Met office 4casts! With todays technology, why is there such a huge difference in interpretation, possibly with dire results.

I have just watched the sunset and it left a nice glowing red sky.

We are all meeting up in the morning and will decide then wether to go or not.I suspect we will go!!!!!!!

Watch this space!

Paul

[Guest]

Dont forget your bicycle clips I have a mate up in Scarborough who is looking to get to Grimsby this week so I have been checking for him. It looks pretty windy although mostly westerly. Wednesday is looking best so far.

Tomorrow it seams it will be blowing fours but gusting sevens cyclonic. See if the fishing fleet go out first.

Jonathan

[marshman]

I would NEVER disregard a shipping forecast - thats just how accidents happen. A good website for wind is here

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=47929

Dont forget these are with a westerly wind so offshore it will be worse.

Its going to be a pretty breezy week except perhaps for a pause in the middle ,even more so later so it is not one where I would be happy out there - weather does not fit your timetable sometimes but whilst they do tend to overdramatise at times, and err on caution, better that way than the other.

All decisions have to be made by the skipper who is ultimately responsible and not a decision to be influenced by others whilst sitting indoors at a computer!!!

Take a very close look at the synoptic charts too - they can be found here

http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php

Good luck but make your own decisions and on your judgment.

[marshman]

Just checked out XC weather - not sure where you are looking but they are showing 25+ mph for the Sandette tomorrow thats not gusts either!!! By my reckoning thats F6/7 at a minimum.

Still your skippers call though!!!!

[Guest]

I would NEVER disregard a shipping forecast - thats just how accidents happen. A good website for wind is here

http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=47929

Dont forget these are with a westerly wind so offshore it will be worse.

Its going to be a pretty breezy week except perhaps for a pause in the middle ,even more so later so it is not one where I would be happy out there - weather does not fit your timetable sometimes but whilst they do tend to overdramatise at times, and err on caution, better that way than the other.

All decisions have to be made by the skipper who is ultimately responsible and not a decision to be influenced by others whilst sitting indoors at a computer!!!

Take a very close look at the synoptic charts too - they can be found here

http://www.mwis.org.uk/synoptic.php

Good luck but make your own decisions and on your judgment.

The skipper needs the information to make a judgement and often some one to run it by who has cruised the same waters.

[Guest]

5/6 is 19 to 31 mph. Its the cyclonic aspect that I don't like.

[Brigid-Mary]

Just checked out XC weather - not sure where you are looking but they are showing 25+ mph for the Sandette tomorrow thats not gusts either!!! By my reckoning thats F6/7 at a minimum.

Still your skippers call though!!!!

I have just looked at XC and it has just been updated.

The point I am trying to make is that there is such a wide discrepency in the published 4 casts.

Even with the updated indicator on XC,east of Bawdsey, where I am most concerned with, as it is mid way of our first leg, shows 17 Knts at 1300 which is a force 4-5, nowhere near the predictions of severe gale 9 that the met office is saying.

If the wind speed is any more than 20 knts at 1000 tommorrow, then we dont go.

Paul

[DaveS]

The pressure has been dropping steadily for the past 24 hours. From 1016mb to 1008mb now, and still dropping.

Dave

[senator]

Agree totally with the variation in forecasts. tend to make decisions no more than the day before and in truth you can't tell till the day.

There is supposed to be a new Met Office super computer coming on line, apparently it is already built but it will take a few years to program it, I suppose all we can do is hope it improves things as at the moment the inaccuracies are huge

[jillR]

hi paul

good luck and i hope it all goes well for you all

jill

[Guest]

Currently blowing 6's and gusting 7's southerly at rnsyc .

[marshman]

Met Office have downgraded it a bit - perhaps the low going through is not as deep as it could have been. Still looks pretty breezy though.

One of the reasons for the discrepancies may be with shore stations and a w s/w at the moment, you can knock at least a Force off as it it is off the land. Offshore it will be that bit stronger.

Can't find the website with all the buoys on at the moment but it still looks a bit brisk in the Southern North Sea but easing somewhat as that low scurries northwards. Why not ring up the forecaster and have a chat with him?

On balance I do think the Met Office overcook it a bit but to be fair they are only erring on the side of caution when they do that and they don,t always!!!

Good luck in your conference and have a good one if you go!!!

[pks1702]

Hope you manage to find a window Paul.

Like you we often find when Passage Planning differing forecasts from different places. Overtime however we have found Windfinder to be more accurate that most.

http://www.windfinder.com/

The beauty of this is it allows you to pick various locations perhaps en route or a start and finish point to get a picture of conditions not just locally but along the passage. Additionally the beauty of this site is that it gives Wave heights, direction and interval.

[Antares_9]

Like you Paul, I have little faith in the Met office forecasts, preferring to use some of the others mentioned earlier and my own reading of the weather maps. However if theirs is worse than the others I would lean toward caution.

[DaveS]

Just looked at the live pictures on the web-cam at Cromer, and there's a lot of 'white horses' on the sea.

I notice that the pressure had dropped to 994mB this morning, but the good news is that its now staring to rise.

If you do go, then good luck and a safe passage.

Dave

[Lucky]

Just had a text from Wayne to say that the journey has been delayed for 24 hours...

[MY littleboat]

Probably a wise choise, wind down here (felixstowe) has been gently stiffening all morning.... Alton water and wind surfing here we come... Good luck with the trip out tomorrow guys

[pks1702]

This really has been about as windy an August as I can recall virtually the whole of the month has suffered from strong winds I reckon you will have to sit tight a couple of days at least Paul.

Gibraltar Point to North Foreland

Issued by the Met Office at 0400 UTC on Monday 23 August 2010

24 hour forecast:

Wind - Cyclonic 4 or 5 at first in north otherwise westerly or southwesterly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 in south, decreasing 3 or 4 for a time in north.

Sea State - Mainly moderate.

Weather - Rain then squally showers.

Visibility - Moderate or poor becoming mainly good.

Outlook for the following 24 hours:

Wind - Westerly or southwesterly 6 to gale 8 veering northwesterly 5 or 6 later.

Sea State - Mainly moderate.

Weather - Squally showers.

Visibility - Mainly good.

North Foreland to Selsey Bill

Issued by the Met Office at 0400 UTC on Monday 23 August 2010

24 hour forecast:

Wind - Westerly or southwesterly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first in east, decreasing 5 at times.

Sea State - Moderate or rough.

Weather - Rain at first.

Visibility - Moderate or poor becoming good.

Outlook for the following 24 hours:

Wind - Westerly or southwesterly 6 to gale 8, decreasing 4 or 5 later.

Sea State - Moderate or rough, occasionally slight later.

Weather - Squally showers.

Visibility - Mainly good.

[Brigid-Mary]

Well, here I sit at 23.00, mulling over the past 24 hours, out side there is hardly a breath of wind.

We stood on Southwold pier this afternoon and the sea state was the top end of slight.certainly do able down as far as the Kentish knock.

Then at 1800 there was 40 knots of wind at the knobs and snobs.

The forecast for tomorrow is stil sh1t so we have had to cancel our trip to Portsmouth, as we needed to be at Cowes on Wednesday morning, and what was forcast for Wednesday? near perfect conditions.

There are 5 disapointed people in the vicinity, but I am afraid that prudence rules.

Maybe after the weekend the weather will improve and we can get to Ijmuiden. Thanks to Wayne and Barry for their understanding. It was good to meet up with Wayne Tracey and Barry today, although It transpires that I was abusive to Barry a couple of years ago. I'll leave Barry to fill in the details!!!!!!

Been a good canter, thanks for all your responses.

Paul.

[baz1033]

I was gutted today to not be able to go out today but that the geat British weather for you which cant be helped

I am a fan of classic power boats and have followed ocean since it was being made ready for the 2008 round britain race.

For people who may be interested Ocean is a 40’ offshore cruiser built by Brooke Marine at Lowestoft in 1968 and is out of aluminium.

She took part in the 1969 round Britain race in which 43 boats started the race and only 24 finished. Ocean came 7th overall taking 48 hours and 36 minutes to cover the 1403 miles at an average speed of 29.3 mph. The current owner who purchased the the boat in 2004 said that if ever they brought back the round britain race he would enter Ocean in the race thinking this would never happen, but you guessed it they did for 2008 so the owner made some calls and from this the classic class was born. This meant the boat would benifit from some new engines,gearboxes elctronics etc so in went a pair of Cummins Quantum series 355hp engines which can push the boat to over 30 knots.

In 2008 Ocean was one of only five boats to complete the entire race by water and finished th race safe and sound if a little soggy from the foul British weather they enjured.

Anyway now to paul calling me an idiot (been called it before so i was not shocked) It was at the air show in Lowestoft a couple of years ago when on one of the days the sea cut up a bit rough Ocean was due to go out to a rig or something like that to pick some people up and came out of the harbour but changed his mind due to the weather i think so waited on the waiting pontoon for the bridge to open (a long wait).

However i decided that i just wanted to go to sea and could not wait any longer. Now there will be some people who will tut and suck through there teeth and not be to happy with what i did but here goes. I had only been out to sea on my own in a small 3mtr rib before in Cornwall or the med in a hire speed boat but on osprey i just wanted to take here to where she belongs so with no training or charts,flairs and armed only with life jackets from when i was a teenager off i went, I saw the green lights and opened the throttles (first telling off by lowestoft harbour control) I did not know about the bouys and the spray was now coming over the flybridge so the small chart plotter that i thought i would use was usless i just could not see it so i headed off straight acrros the sand banks but hit nothing then i thought i would try to put my ancor down big mistake my wife was now in the corner of the kitchen curled up and very ill so i tried the pull the ancor up not a clue what o do but got back in after a while mored up against Paul told him what had happened hence he called me in stronger language an bleeping idiot fair enough i say.

Barry

[pks1702]

Sorry to hear your trip has been canceled Paul, been there worn the T shirt but lived to go another day, so prudence is never far away - poor girl

It certainly has been odd weather this last month, there have been times when we thought the forecast must be wrong only to find two hours later it was blowing a hooley and our decision was vindicated.

Fingers crossed for you for Ijmuiden

[wayneakp]

Oopps - destination Passport office for me first - mine's run out