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There but for the grace of God go I.  Perhaps, living in a civilised country of plenty (by comparison to so many of our race), it’s easy to lose sight of the scale of the Coronavirus issue in the big scheme of things.  In the face of the virus and Brexit and amongst the calls for a reduction in foreign aid, we forget numbers like this:

62CD0C18-FA87-4D18-B4B9-A3CC832486F1.jpeg
 

And we call ourselves civilised?

Sorry, I’m off!

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Just giving people the heads up that we will be on Moonlight Shadow from Saturday in case you wish to avoid us as we are travelling from our home in Bolton Interestingly I am a club secretary for a

The young, especially, are being totally cavalier in regard to Covid 19, HMG have no option but to put the breaks back on. The holiday industry will be hit, but that surely is inevitable.

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my view is that there is a reason the daily infection rate is rising, back in july we had 500 daily cases, now we have 2500 daily cases, the death rate has not changed over that time, the only thing that has changed is testing, we are doing more testing, the testing centres are moved to locations with rising rates of infection, so while we are doing twice as many tests as july, they are targeted in ares of high infection, thus more positive results, the lack of change in the death rates indicates things are pretty stable now, so the only real difference is that we are detecting more people who are infected, not that more people are infected, we are just detecting more of them.

So far we have tested nearly 1 in 4 of the population, once everyone has been tested (if that is possible) then we will have identified all those infected and then the remainder of us can proceed with all due caution, well thats how it seems to me.

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Good post Grendel. My view too.  As you say, seek, and ye shall find. 

Is there a reason why there are these 'scare tactics' being employed ?  There seems to be an agenda. I have my theory, but since it is political I'd best not voice it here !

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7 minutes ago, Poppy said:

 

Is there a reason why there are these 'scare tactics' being employed ?  There seems to be an agenda. I have my theory, but since it is political I'd best not voice it here !

To quote "Yawn' emoticon again needed ! " :default_rolleyes:

 Fred

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I think the quotes I have listed below are most relevant from Dr Lee's article. So much more has been learned in the intervening 5 months. He obviously can't be held to comments he made in good faith at the time of writing in light of later developments.

Personally and only in my opinion I can't understand the constant references to the present level of fatalities due to seasonal flu. Each of those deaths is dreadful for those concerned and so is every death from covid, the ones who wouldn't have died from flu etc. they are excess deaths and not less important just because less "fuss" is made about flu.

 

 

""Dr John Lee

How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear

There is room for different interpretations of the data

From magazine issue: 28 March 2020.""

 

""There is room for different interpretations of the current data""

 

""One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.""

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18 minutes ago, trambo said:

To quote "Yawn' emoticon again needed ! " :default_rolleyes:

 Fred

I dont know about anyone else, but this comes across as a little disrespectful to me, if you are not interested dont read, but to make a comment indicating the subject bores you seems to me to be disrespectful of those that are taking time to put their thoughts down on the forum. This is why we dont have (and never will have ) a yawn emoticon, as it is a sign of disrespect.

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Just giving people the heads up that we will be on Moonlight Shadow from Saturday in case you wish to avoid us as we are travelling from our home in Bolton

Interestingly I am a club secretary for a grassroots football club in Bolton with many teams (senior, boys and girls) and a great community spirit (CMB FC) and we have risk assessments in place, I am the dedicated COVID Officer for the club and we follow, FA, Local Authority and Government advice and are still operating

I am also the league secretary for a grassroots football league in Bolton, which has 615 teams over 8000 players around 1500 coaches, 100 referees and thousands more volunteers, family and friends watching each week

www.bbdfl.org

The league is still operating throughout the imposed lockdown as we are designated as a sport that can continue due to the guidelines that we have put in place

The rationale for that being that the FA have submitted detailed plans to DCMS around the safeguards that need to be in place to minimise the transmission of the virus and allow the sport to continue, whilst placing conditions on those involved which includes my club, its members and our league

RIGHTLY SO!!

Those conditions have been circulated by the FA and includes all clubs must have a COVID Officer responsible for ensuring that their club adheres to the policies, all clubs must have risk assessments in place for training and matches and all persons must adhere to those risk assessments and no more than 6 persons may congregate as spectators in any one location whilst all spectators must adhere to social distancing guidance. Equipment must be sanitised prior to activity and on the conclusion of activity and participants are encouraged to sanitise their hands again prior and on the conclusion of activity.

This week one of my teams (U15s) have gone into 14 days isolation. Why? because a mother of one of the players was feeling unwell and went for a test which came back positive, as a precaution all the squad have gone into 14 day isolation, including parents and any persons who had been in their company

This is all we can do, follow the advice, act when we have to do and get on with our lives, in my humble opinion

So I just wanted to provide some information from the frontline on how we, even in a hotspot area, are responding.



 

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2 minutes ago, grendel said:

I dont know about anyone else, but this comes across as a little disrespectful to me, if you are not interested dont read, but to make a comment indicating the subject bores you seems to me to be disrespectful of those that are taking time to put their thoughts down on the forum. This is why we dont have (and never will have ) a yawn emoticon, as it is a sign of disrespect.

Must take issue. It was not I who mentioned the yawn emoticon and that reference of it originally was aimed at myself. I took that remark in good humour. The reply to Poppy was tongue in cheek hence the smiley. I'm reading the thread because I am interested in the subject, will continue to read the thread and to comment where I think appropriate and can assure you I do not disrespect anyones opinion but neither should they mine.

Fred

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48 minutes ago, trambo said:

Must take issue. It was not I who mentioned the yawn emoticon and that reference of it originally was aimed at myself. I took that remark in good humour. The reply to Poppy was tongue in cheek hence the smiley. I'm reading the thread because I am interested in the subject, will continue to read the thread and to comment where I think appropriate and can assure you I do not disrespect anyones opinion but neither should they mine.

Fred

Fair enough, I admit I read it out of context, so my fault there, but that indicates why we wont have one, as it can easily be taken the wrong way.

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1 hour ago, Ray said:

I think the quotes I have listed below are most relevant from Dr Lee's article. So much more has been learned in the intervening 5 months. He obviously can't be held to comments he made in good faith at the time of writing in light of later developments.

Personally and only in my opinion I can't understand the constant references to the present level of fatalities due to seasonal flu. Each of those deaths is dreadful for those concerned and so is every death from covid, the ones who wouldn't have died from flu etc. they are excess deaths and not less important just because less "fuss" is made about flu.

 

 

""Dr John Lee

How deadly is the coronavirus? It’s still far from clear

There is room for different interpretations of the data

From magazine issue: 28 March 2020.""

 

""There is room for different interpretations of the current data""

 

""One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate. But we have yet to see any statistical evidence for excess deaths, in any part of the world.""

The attrbuton of deaths to covid 19 have been near criminal in some cases, the most outstanding beng that of a newborn child who died withn 24 hours of birth  as a result of catastrophc congenital heart problems.  The mother , who never apparently had contact with the child was subsequently diagnosed wth covid. As a result of that, and that alone the baby'd death was attrbuted to covid !

Then there are the numerous cases of elderly people who died in care homes whose demse was attributed to the dsease wthout any testng !

I make no apologies for mistrusting the fgures !

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25 minutes ago, Poppy said:

I make no apologies for mistrusting the fgures !

Absolutely agree with you, this is one reason that the excess deaths figure is so important.

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3 hours ago, Ray said:

Absolutely agree with you, this is one reason that the excess deaths figure is so important.

My partner who is part of the management team of a 150 bed care home lost 9 residents to Covid in two weeks during the early peak of the pandemic. In the last 10 weeks they have had just 2 deaths neither Covid related. So the situation has improved greatly. Summer has a lot to do with this and we will just have to hope the now improved testing of staff and better provision of PPE will help during the coming months.

The chaos surrounding the early days of the crisis was in no small part down to the governments incompetence and their reluctance to admit the problem. What they said they were doing to help for care homes bore no relation to what was happening in the real World.

Fred

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6 hours ago, Tempest said:

Just giving people the heads up that we will be on Moonlight Shadow from Saturday in case you wish to avoid us as we are travelling from our home in Bolton

Am I right thinking MS is Broom based?  If so, our paths will cross on Saturday.  In any case, we appear to be in for some decent weather - should lift our spirits somewhat!

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1 hour ago, trambo said:

My partner who is part of the management team of a 150 bed care home lost 9 residents to Covid in two weeks during the early peak of the pandemic. In the last 10 weeks they have had just 2 deaths neither Covid related. So the situation has improved greatly. Summer has a lot to do with this and we will just have to hope the now improved testing of staff and better provision of PPE will help during the coming months.

The chaos surrounding the early days of the crisis was in no small part down to the governments incompetence and their reluctance to admit the problem. What they said they were doing to help for care homes bore no relation to what was happening in the real World.

Fred

Were they tested ?

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1 hour ago, Poppy said:

Were they tested ?

A total of 14 residents tested positive for Coronavirus during the period mentioned. The annoying thing is that at this time none of the staff were able to get tested. 

Fred

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I believe one should always try to see a funny side where possible and I read something in the papers this morning :

If the panto season can be salvaged this winter, we shall have to look out for Snow White and the Five Dwarfs.

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