Corona Virus

[Meantime]

20 minutes ago, Koolwabbit said:

What makes me curious,  only 10% of test results are positive covid , what are the other 90% ? considering one is supposed to have symptoms to get a test done. Also couriers are photographing deliveres now instead of signatures so what happens to the photos?

Nigel

The symptoms for COVID19 appear to be very similar to a whole host of other illnesses so not surprising that people with other illnesses are coming forward to be tested. I also believe that there are a number of professions now where you can get a test to ensure you are not asymptomatic showing no symptoms, before going back to work in a care home or hospital etc.

Re the photos, I would guess they are stored for a period of time to act as proof of delivery. The data will be controlled by the GDPR regulations and each company will have a data controller responsible for ensuring the data is stored properly, used for the right reasons and then destroyed afterwards.

[Meantime]

3 minutes ago, Poppy said:

It doesn't however cover the excess deaths from conditions other than covid, resulting from people who were unable or too fearful to seek help for things like coronary conditions, cancer, sepsis to name just three serious problems. Iy's admitted that this has happened !

If you add up the figures on the spreadsheet for those that have COVID19 on the death certificate you get 33,257. Which is fairly close to the figure the government report on TV every day. If you take that away from the 46,494 you get a figure of 13237, which could possibly be the excess deaths from other causes, however the government got a lot of stick in the early days from care deaths often not being recorded as COVID19 even though they probably were as no testing was being gone. Remember the early stories of the forgotten deaths, which is why the government now records deaths in all settings.

[Poppy]

10 minutes ago, EastCoastIPA said:

If you add up the figures on the spreadsheet for those that have COVID19 on the death certificate you get 33,257. Which is fairly close to the figure the government report on TV every day. If you take that away from the 46,494 you get a figure of 13237, which could possibly be the excess deaths from other causes, however the government got a lot of stick in the early days from care deaths often not being recorded as COVID19 even though they probably were as no testing was being gone. Remember the early stories of the forgotten deaths, which is why the government now records deaths in all settings.

Of those, how many have been tested post mortem - or even diagnosed before death ?  It is clear that attribution of the cause of death to covid is done without any clinical basis ." Probably were" is simply not good enough !  This should not be happening !

[MauriceMynah]

5 minutes ago, Poppy said:

It is clear that attribution of the cause of death to covid is done without any clinical basis .

Clear to you perhaps, but I wouldn't like to start a poll to see just how many other members here find it  "clear".

[Poppy]

 There has been a great rush  to  classify lots of deaths as Covid 19. Surely when there is a house fire and the occupants are brought out dead the coroner doesn't say;
'Yep, asphyxiation.'

No,they cut them open and examine the bodies to make sure that they weren't murdered before the fire started.

Is it too much too ask that we are not just giving this disease a broad brush to make someone's life simpler?

We learn from facts supported by evidence. Science can't be based on supposition - 'well, it looked like it' is never good enough for basing policy.

[JennyMorgan]

I'm afraid that Poppy is right. Health care professionals that I know have made the same observation.

[Poppy]

6 minutes ago, MauriceMynah said:

Clear to you perhaps, but I wouldn't like to start a poll to see just how many other members here find it  "clear".

Why not ?

[batrabill]

https://www.newstatesman.com/2020/05/covid-19-pandemic-numbers

[Meantime]

7 minutes ago, Poppy said:

 There has been a great rush  to  classify lots of deaths as Covid 19. Surely when there is a house fire and the occupants are brought out dead the coroner doesn't say;
'Yep, asphyxiation.'

No,they cut them open and examine the bodies to make sure that they weren't murdered before the fire started.

Is it too much too ask that we are not just giving this disease a broad brush to make someone's life simpler?

We learn from facts supported by evidence. Science can't be based on supposition - 'well, it looked like it' is never good enough for basing policy.

With all due respect, have you looked at that spreadsheet. In some weeks the number of deaths have more than doubled! Have the number of people qualified to do a post mortem doubled in those weeks? Not all deaths require a post mortem, in fact many do not. A post mortem will often only be carried out where the cause of death is unknown, or there are suspicious circumstances. If someone has a history of heart problems and goes into hospital with a heart attack and then passes away the cause of death will be coronary disease without a PM taking place. Medical professionals frequently make professional judgements when it comes to what goes on the death certificate.

[Poppy]

25 minutes ago, EastCoastIPA said:

With all due respect, have you looked at that spreadsheet. In some weeks the number of deaths have more than doubled! Have the number of people qualified to do a post mortem doubled in those weeks? Not all deaths require a post mortem, in fact many do not. A post mortem will often only be carried out where the cause of death is unknown, or there are suspicious circumstances. If someone has a history of heart problems and goes into hospital with a heart attack and then passes away the cause of death will be coronary disease without a PM taking place. Medical professionals frequently make professional judgements when it comes to what goes on the death certificate.

I have some knowledge in this area. PMs are of course not be needed in every death. A heart attack However some clinical evidence will be required - a heart attack is a simple diagnosis. With Covid 19 there are numerous other conditions which will confuse a proper diagnosis if present.  A simple test will confirm that - and it doesn't require a pathologist to carry that out !

In todays paper, baby was born with heart problems, brain damage due to the heart and oxygen starvation, it, unsurprisingly, died of these problems, but as the mother had contracted Covid whilst in hospital giving birth, they put Covid on the Certificate as an ancillary cause thus bunking up the figures.

That's enough from me, we must agree to differ, since I am unprepared to accept what the government are feeding us without question unlike others it would seem.

[Vaughan]

1 hour ago, EastCoastIPA said:

The data will be controlled by the GDPR regulations and each company will have a data controller responsible for ensuring the data is stored properly, used for the right reasons and then destroyed afterwards.

That is what they say about an awful lot of data, these days!

[Vaughan]

18 minutes ago, Poppy said:

That's enough from me, we must agree to differ, since I am unprepared to accept what the government are feeding us without question unlike others it would seem.

My mother died, in a care home, in January 2001, because she caught the normal winter "flu bug" that was going around and her constitution was not strong enough to recover from it.  She was already 88 years old and had been suffering from a heart circulation condition for many years.  So she died from a "flu related" condition but she would not have lasted for more than about a year, anyway.  So did she die of the flu?  Perhaps "the jury is still out" on that one.

Government figures from the Dept. of Health and Social Care (DHSC) state that deaths during wintertime from "flu related complications" average 17,000 every year and in the winter of 2014/15 they were 28,330.  Funny we never heard about that at the time!

So how many people have "died of the flu" this last winter?  Funny we haven't heard about that either, have we?  Possibly because those statistics have just been "lumped in" under Coronavirus deaths, for want of any more detailed research?

1 hour ago, JennyMorgan said:

I'm afraid that Poppy is right. Health care professionals that I know have made the same observation.

Me too!!

[Meantime]

The ONS figures for the last five years include all deaths, so include seasonal flu. The 46,494 are additional deaths over and above the normal. So no I don't suppose the seasonal flu figures have been lumped in under Corona Virus deaths.

[MauriceMynah]

1 hour ago, Poppy said:

That's enough from me, we must agree to differ, since I am unprepared to accept what the government are feeding us without question unlike others it would seem

That I think might be the crux of the problem. Where should a person get his/her facts from?

Personally, I have to rely on government figures. If I feel I  have to question those figures, I am at a loss to know of a reliable source to do so.

The newspapers are, for me, a complete "No no". I have no trust in journalists for whom sensationalism is a way of life. The television broadcasters have much the same ethos. Viewing figures are their gods. 

I end up having to believe that which I hear first hand on the TV or Radio, and then only that which is broadcast live and therefore unedited. If I miss the live broadcast, I have to trust the BBC to show accurate recordings, edited for running time purposes not for political bias.

This as I say means I have to believe the government and it's experts, and I have to do so "without question" as I have nobody better informed to ask!

Ok, I accept that not only do we have facts, we also have opinions (we all hold those) but who's opinion do I value, and on what should I base that valuation? Poppy, sometimes I agree with your opinions and sometimes I do not, but the posts you have made about this virus have confused me greatly. I don't know if you are trying to say that this virus is nothing to concern ourselves about, which I would not agree with, or that you are trying to tell me that the whole thing is a government plot to control us. I would disagree with that too!

Once again, I find I have no choice but to put my faith in Parliament and the experts it employs. It's either Parliament or the bloke I meet in the pub.... but they ain't open!

 

 

[Vaughan]

31 minutes ago, EastCoastIPA said:

So no I don't suppose the seasonal flu figures have been lumped in under Corona Virus deaths.

You don't suppose.

But they certainly have not been quoted as a separate figure, when so far they have averaged 17,000 every winter?

[Meantime]

2 minutes ago, Vaughan said:

You don't suppose.

But they certainly have not been quoted as a separate figure, when so far they have averaged 17,000 every winter?

The ONS figures are for all deaths from whatever cause. They have been produced for quite some years now and do not provide breakdowns for cause of death. This year the figure for all deaths have jumped by over 46,000 compared to the previous five years. Deaths from flu for previous years and this year are included in the all figure along with all the Corona virus deaths this year. ONS never report flu deaths separately on the spreadsheet I referred to. So what has caused the extra 46,000 deaths? If it is not Corona virus, is there another silent killer that no one has spotted yet? Has flu claimed an extra 20,000 lives this year and Corona Virus in reality only 26,000? Balance of probability suggests that since this is an extra 46,000 over and above the five year average it will be as a direct, or indirect result of some new disease this year!

Since the Corona Virus outbreak the ONS is also reporting figures for where Corona virus is mentioned on the death certificate, but these are already included in the all cause deaths, so are not being reported twice, just broken out for clarification.

I don't know where you are getting your flu figures from and maybe that source could tell you this years flu figures.

[ZimbiIV]

I knew 4 people who have died in the last month.

Two were passed there best by date with terminal cancer.

One was on palative care for sepsis.

One her last half kidney gave up.

They all died of the same thing

COVID 19

The pen hides many things!

paul

Ps I don't know anybody diagnosed with coronervirus.

 

 

[JawsOrca]

With respect I don't understand why the questioning of numbers?? Yes the government maybe doing strange things for numbers for whatever reason (Probably to still instil a bit of realism into those still burying the head in the sand). But we should be in no doubt that people are dying of a global pandemic, I guess it's nice to live in hope that it's not as bad as it seems, but personally I suspect it's worse than we are lead to believe, 10 years down the line I'm sure we see how bad today is and how much of a bullet we are all currently dodging..

I know of 3 people who died of coronavirus.. nothing else.

I know of 4 people who have recovered. 

I have many stories from the front line of how bad it is.

Just because we can't see it doesn't mean it's not there.. 

And if we look back at the spanish flu (which hopefully history wont repeat), it may get a lot worse (and the spanish flu only went away because it mutated to a less dangerous strain who knows what COVID-19 will do).

[Meantime]

9 minutes ago, ZimbiIV said:

I knew 4 people who have died in the last month.

Two were passed there best by date with terminal cancer.

One was on palative care for sepsis.

One her last half kidney gave up.

They all died of the same thing

COVID 19

The pen hides many things!

paul

Ps I don't know anybody diagnosed with coronervirus.

 

 

And the four cases you quote above would be included in the all figure. The all figure for the last 6 weeks is over 46,000 higher than the previous five years.

The pen might hide many things, but there are none so blind as those that will not see.

[Poppy]

32 minutes ago, EastCoastIPA said:

The ONS figures are for all deaths from whatever cause. They have been produced for quite some years now and do not provide breakdowns for cause of death. This year the figure for all deaths have jumped by over 46,000 compared to the previous five years. Deaths from flu for previous years and this year are included in the all figure along with all the Corona virus deaths this year. ONS never report flu deaths separately on the spreadsheet I referred to. So what has caused the extra 46,000 deaths? If it is not Corona virus, is there another silent killer that no one has spotted yet? Has flu claimed an extra 20,000 lives this year and Corona Virus in reality only 26,000? Balance of probability suggests that since this is an extra 46,000 over and above the five year average it will be as a direct, or indirect result of some new disease this year!

Since the Corona Virus outbreak the ONS is also reporting figures for where Corona virus is mentioned on the death certificate, but these are already included in the all cause deaths, so are not being reported twice, just broken out for clarification.

I don't know where you are getting your flu figures from and maybe that source could tell you this years flu figures.

Meanwhile, on the BBC news just now A&E attendances have reached the lowest ever recorded, as people 'stay away from hospitals'.  GP referals for urgent cancer concerns have also fallen significantly. This can't be without a knock on effect.

[CambridgeCabby]

I seriously doubt that the actual figures of deaths due solely to Covid-19 will ever be known and arguments will continue for many years to come about the true figures, the published figures we read everyday are those deaths that have tested positive to the virus and it was deemed that Covid-19 was a contributive factor.

What we do know for certain is that thousands of deaths are due to Covid-19 and irrespective of numbers many friends and families are without their loved ones far to soon and my thoughts are with them.

If we can all just step back to remember them instead of arguing over semantics, and work together to try and halt the spread of this awful virus one day we can get back to a semblance of normality and enjoy being with our friends and loved ones again.

[Meantime]

Correct which is why the medical experts in the daily press briefings keep referring to the deaths from indirect causes, which won't be known for some time yet. When the direct deaths from COVID19 start to subside and over time the statistics will then start to show how many people are dying because of the indirect cause of COVID19. There is no way of escaping the fact that people will die because they either cannot go, do not want to go, or the normal hospital service is not available. However with no lock down the number of additional deaths was estimated to be in the region of 500,000 deaths.

 

[Meantime]

8 minutes ago, Poppy said:

Meanwhile, on the BBC news just now A&E attendances have reached the lowest ever recorded, as people 'stay away from hospitals.  GP referals for urgent cancer concerns have also fallen significantly. This can't be without a knock on effect.

I would also query how much the closure of pubs, bars and clubs especially Thurs till Sat has had an effect on those A&E numbers.

[ZimbiIV]

38 minutes ago, EastCoastIPA said:

And the four cases you quote above would be included in the all figure. The all figure for the last 6 weeks is over 46,000 higher than the previous five years.

The pen might hide many things, but there are none so blind as those that will not see.

I will add 2 of those deaths were hospital related.

One had a stroke and came out with sepsis.

One of the cancer patients was given the wrong  treatment at the start but accepted it was an error.

All four are now directly consigned to having died of covid 19.

There are non so deaf that will not hear.

paul

 

[marshman]

We all know that figures mean just what they are - no one is querying them but you have to be careful about making rash assumptions in these times which seem to be stressing everyone out. Whilst I accept that the situation in care homes is stressful and awful but doctors do not test every patient who has died for Covid 19 before writing and signing a death certificate - or do they? What we really need to see is the increase in care home deaths this year over preceding years probably over a five year period and then that is still no guarantee that it is the true figure. Neither will it be available until 2025!

I am not trying to underplay the enormity of the situation and it is pointless reiterating quotes like "there is none so blind..." but statistically these figures need to be considered in hindsight, and I cannot provide that!!